It is
often said that Islam is the fastest- growing religion in the world. This
statement is true because of the pace of demographic transition in the
Muslim-majority countries relative to the rest of world. Middle east and North
Africa (MENA) region, the largest concentration of Muslim population (Above
90%), experienced rapid mortality decline during the second half of the 20th
century whereas fertility rate remained high and population growth reached to
its peak of 3.0 % per year in 1980’s but at the same time the growth rate for
the world reached its peak of 2.0 % annual growth rate more than a decade
earlier. Iran, Lebanon, Tunisia and Turkey have completed their demographic
transition and their total fertility rate (TFR)
reached below 2.1 (replacement level) but at the same time their
population is continued to increase in the coming decades due to young age
structure owing to high fertility in the past. The speed of population growth
will be faster in countries that are in the early or middle stages of
demographic transition. TFR of Pakistan (3.6) is the second highest after
Nigeria (TFR=5.9) in the top ten largest Muslim populations. It is difficult to
predict the pace of demographic transition of a country and Iran surprised the
world through dropping its TFR from 5.6 in 1985 to 2.0 in 2000- the fastest
decline in the world (Fahimi, May et
al. 2013 ).Pakistan is lagging in successful completion
of demographic transition due to the influence of religion, male dominated
society and family system. (Mahmood 2014)
Pakistan has a unique position in the
demographic transition. Pakistan has passed rapidly the first stage of the demographic
transition with the transfer of advanced medical facilities from the advanced
countries whereas Pakistan is lagging in passing through the second stage of
demographic transition and is still in the early phase of second stage in which
birth rate begins to decline.
Recent Pakistan and Demographic and Health Survey 2012-2013 also indicated that total fertility rate in Pakistan is not decreasing as rapidly as expected and it is still at 3.8, contrary to its expectation at 3.2. (Weeks 2014) Pakistani society is showing resistance in using family planning methods for diminishing the family size due to the religion influence. Ulemas (religious scholars ) preach in their sermons that limiting family size through using family planning method is a great sin and those who will commit this sin will be burnt in the hell . Developed nations transferred the advanced medical facilities for reducing mortality in Pakistan but these nations could not reduce the fertility rate that is being monitored by socio-cultural and socio-economic factors rather than medical factors due to the religion influence and other related factors which we discussed earlier in the section 2.1.5.6. Economic and social drivers of fertility drop are complex (Zaninetti, 2011 p. 78-81).
Recent Pakistan and Demographic and Health Survey 2012-2013 also indicated that total fertility rate in Pakistan is not decreasing as rapidly as expected and it is still at 3.8, contrary to its expectation at 3.2. (Weeks 2014) Pakistani society is showing resistance in using family planning methods for diminishing the family size due to the religion influence. Ulemas (religious scholars ) preach in their sermons that limiting family size through using family planning method is a great sin and those who will commit this sin will be burnt in the hell . Developed nations transferred the advanced medical facilities for reducing mortality in Pakistan but these nations could not reduce the fertility rate that is being monitored by socio-cultural and socio-economic factors rather than medical factors due to the religion influence and other related factors which we discussed earlier in the section 2.1.5.6. Economic and social drivers of fertility drop are complex (Zaninetti, 2011 p. 78-81).
At present, Pakistan is passing through
a critical situation and we cannot precise the exact time period for Pakistan
to pass through the demographic transition. Pakistan may take long time to pass
the process of demographic transition due to the attitude of Pakistani society
towards limiting family size. We should be optimistic after observing rapid
population decline in other conservative Muslim countries, e.g. Iran. For the successful demographic transition in
Pakistan, there is dire need to acquire cooperation of Pakistani Ulemas,
increasing the literacy level, creating the awareness of family planning, and
providing the unmet need of family planning methods. (Mahmood 2014)
Factors for lagging behind in demographic Transition
Many factors are responsible for the
slow pace in the second stage of demographic transition in Pakistan. Influence
of the religion on a family is the major cause of high fertility and it is
augmented through early marriages, desire of son, unawareness of family
planning methods, Joint family system. Fears of the deaths of children in their
grandparent generation in 1960s and 1970s are still present in the minds of
parents so they continue to increase their family size.
Family institution in Pakistan is
playing a vital role in lengthen this phase through early marriages, joint
family system, influence of religion and low status of women. Birth of a child outside wedlock is not
possible in Pakistan and if it occurs somewhere, it is not reported due to a shame
factor and fears of the legal proceedings. Crude birth rate (CBR) is still high
and continues to remain high till the occurrence of changes in the attitude of
Pakistani families towards limiting family size and is only possible with the
help of religious scholars, increasing literacy rate, decreasing gender
discrimination and empowering women. (Mahmood 2014)
There is no doubt in it that cultural
factors stated above are responsible for the slow pace of demographic transition
in Pakistan but economic factors like informal economy also played a decisive
role in curtailing demographic transition’s pace. The World Bank says that in Pakistan, roughly
70 percent work in the so-called informal sector, a part of the economy that is
unregulated and untaxed (Behn 2014).Informal economy not only has economic
implications but also has demographic implications in Pakistan.
It is one of the reasons of lagging behind in demographic transition. Unskilled
labour is required to earn livelihood in the informal economy of Pakistan and
so majority of the people don’t have any formal education and training. It
decreases the importance of education which has a decisive influence on the
fertility. Moreover, poor families increase family size to get more hands for
earning money through adding unskilled workers.
(Mahmood 2014)
When will Pakistan emerge out of the Transition period? (…..)
As Pakistan is still in the early phase
of second stage of demographic transition and we cannot precise the time for
the successful demographic transition in Pakistan due to a great resistance
from the family institute of Pakistan regarding limiting family size, so we
cannot forecast any timeframe regarding into the end of demographic transition because
social change in the societies like Pakistani society is very slow and can take
several centuries. (Mahmood 2014)
References
Weeks, J. R. (2014).
"Pakistan's Birth Rate Not Declining as Quickly as Expected."
Retrieved 02.02.2014, from http://weekspopulation.blogspot.fr/2014/01/pakistans-birth-rate-not-declining-as.html.
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