Demographic Transition in Pakistan

It is often said that Islam is the fastest- growing religion in the world. This statement is true because of the pace of demographic transition in the Muslim-majority countries relative to the rest of world. Middle east and North Africa (MENA) region, the largest concentration of Muslim population (Above 90%), experienced rapid mortality decline during the second half of the 20^th century whereas fertility rate remained high and population growth reached to its peak of 3.0 % per year in 1980’s but at the same time the growth rate for the world reached its peak of 2.0 % annual growth rate more than a decade earlier. Iran, Lebanon, Tunisia and Turkey have completed their demographic transition and their total fertility rate (TFR)  reached below 2.1 (replacement level) but at the same time their population is continued to increase in the coming decades due to young age structure owing to high fertility in the past. The speed of population growth will be faster in countries that are in the early or middle stages of demographic transition. TFR of Pakistan (3.6) is the second highest after Nigeria (TFR=5.9) in the top ten largest Muslim populations. It is difficult to predict the pace of demographic transition of a country and Iran surprised the world through dropping its TFR from 5.6 in 1985 to 2.0 in 2000- the fastest decline in the world (Fahimi, May et al. 2013 ).Pakistan is lagging in successful completion of demographic transition due to the influence of religion, male dominated society and family system.  (Mahmood 2014)

Pakistan has a unique position in the demographic transition. Pakistan has passed rapidly the first stage of the demographic transition with the transfer of advanced medical facilities from the advanced countries whereas Pakistan is lagging in passing through the second stage of demographic transition and is still in the early phase of second stage in which birth rate begins to decline.
Recent Pakistan and Demographic and Health Survey 2012-2013 also indicated that total fertility rate in Pakistan is not decreasing as rapidly as expected and it is still at 3.8, contrary to its expectation at 3.2. (Weeks 2014) Pakistani society is showing resistance in using family planning methods for diminishing the family size due to the religion influence. Ulemas (religious scholars ) preach  in their sermons that  limiting family size through using family planning method is a great sin and those who will commit this sin will be burnt in the hell . Developed nations transferred the advanced medical facilities for reducing mortality in Pakistan but these nations could not reduce the fertility rate that is being monitored by socio-cultural and socio-economic factors rather than medical factors due to the religion influence and other related factors which we discussed earlier in the section 2.1.5.6. Economic and social drivers of fertility drop are complex (Zaninetti, 2011 p. 78-81).

At present, Pakistan is passing through a critical situation and we cannot precise the exact time period for Pakistan to pass through the demographic transition. Pakistan may take long time to pass the process of demographic transition due to the attitude of Pakistani society towards limiting family size. We should be optimistic after observing rapid population decline in other conservative Muslim countries, e.g. Iran.  For the successful demographic transition in Pakistan, there is dire need to acquire cooperation of Pakistani Ulemas, increasing the literacy level, creating the awareness of family planning, and providing the unmet need of family planning methods. (Mahmood 2014)

Factors for lagging behind in demographic Transition

Many factors are responsible for the slow pace in the second stage of demographic transition in Pakistan. Influence of the religion on a family is the major cause of high fertility and it is augmented through early marriages, desire of son, unawareness of family planning methods, Joint family system. Fears of the deaths of children in their grandparent generation in 1960s and 1970s are still present in the minds of parents so they continue to increase their family size.

Family institution in Pakistan is playing a vital role in lengthen this phase through early marriages, joint family system, influence of religion and low status of women.   Birth of a child outside wedlock is not possible in Pakistan and if it occurs somewhere, it is not reported due to a shame factor and fears of the legal proceedings. Crude birth rate (CBR) is still high and continues to remain high till the occurrence of changes in the attitude of Pakistani families towards limiting family size and is only possible with the help of religious scholars, increasing literacy rate, decreasing gender discrimination and empowering women. (Mahmood 2014)

There is no doubt in it that cultural factors stated above are responsible for the slow pace of demographic transition in Pakistan but economic factors like informal economy also played a decisive role in curtailing demographic transition’s pace.  The World Bank says that in Pakistan, roughly 70 percent work in the so-called informal sector, a part of the economy that is unregulated and untaxed (Behn 2014).Informal economy not only has economic implications but also has demographic implications in Pakistan. It is one of the reasons of lagging behind in demographic transition. Unskilled labour is required to earn livelihood in the informal economy of Pakistan and so majority of the people don’t have any formal education and training. It decreases the importance of education which has a decisive influence on the fertility. Moreover, poor families increase family size to get more hands for earning money through adding unskilled workers.  (Mahmood 2014)

When will Pakistan emerge out of the Transition period? (…..)

As Pakistan is still in the early phase of second stage of demographic transition and we cannot precise the time for the successful demographic transition in Pakistan due to a great resistance from the family institute of Pakistan regarding limiting family size, so we cannot forecast any timeframe regarding into the end of demographic transition because social change in the societies like Pakistani society is very slow and can take several centuries. (Mahmood 2014)

References

Behn, S. (2014). Millions Labor in Pakistan's Informal Economy. V. o. America, Voice of America.

               

Fahimi, F. R., et al. (2013 ). Demographic trends in Muslim countries Washington, Population Reference Bureau

               

Mahmood, K. (2014). Transition urbaine et structures familiales au Pakistan, le cas de Faisalabad. CEDETE. France, Université D'Orléans PhD.

               

Weeks, J. R. (2014). "Pakistan's Birth Rate Not Declining as Quickly as Expected." Retrieved 02.02.2014, from http://weekspopulation.blogspot.fr/2014/01/pakistans-birth-rate-not-declining-as.html.